How To Predict Bidder Behavior (Without Psychology)

Every auction software comes with a Bidding History feature. It showcases all bids placed on each item. Because everything is in your bidding history, you don't have to be a psychologist or a mind-reader to “predict the future."

Predictions can be pulled from bidding histories using a simple concept—past behavior is likely to be repeated. And because past behavior is likely to be repeated...

• You can multiply successes by multiplying bidding behaviors that worked in the past.
• You can reduce failures by avoiding bidding behaviors that didn't work in the past.

So if student artwork was successful at your last auction, chances are, you’ll raise more by offering more student artwork. 

But the patterns in your bidding history aren’t always as obvious as that. Instead of going in depth on psychology, we’ll provide a list of common bidding patterns you can find in your bidder history. If you find these patterns in your auction, multiply those strategies at your next auction to multiply your success.

Common Bidding Behaviors to Replicate

Pull up your bidder history, auction reports, and synced CRM data. You might find the following bidding behaviors within your data, which will point you to your best strategies.

1. Gravitating Toward Certain Items

As explained earlier, more bids on an item means your donors like that item! But pay special attention to who is placing all those bids. What are your high value bidders interested in? Give special care to bringing in more items that your MVP donors want.

Tip: Offering too much of a rare type of item will decrease its rarity, making it appear less valuable. Be wary of offering too many multiples of one item.

2. Getting Inspired from Emotional Events

Did bidding peak after an inspiring guest speech? 

Pay attention to peak bidding times in your bidding history and see if that correlated to any inspiring social events. Your donors may have needed the extra inspiration to finally commit to that bid!

3. Gaining Momentum from Social Proof

Did a video of your auction from an influencer increase bids? Was there a boost in bidding after you highlighted a donor’s contribution on a leaderboard?

Social proof is a powerful factor. When people see others supporting your cause, they become inspired to act as well. 

Donors also use social proof to decide whether an item is worth spending money on. Research shows that people tend to follow the opinions of others when making purchases, even online.

4. Responding to Reminders

You may notice increased bidding after an announcement about your auction. Or you may notice more bidding after a text or email is sent out about the auction.

If this is something you notice, try increasing the number of reminders you send out. Just don’t overwhelm your donors with too many messages.

5. Last-Minute Urgency 

Did bidders tend to bid more around closing time? 

If so, create some excitement around closing time. Encourage competition, ask your team to get excited to bring up the energy, or create an auction countdown.

You may also want to try staggered closings. Staggering closings means ending bidding for items at different times. This allows people to give their attention to multiple items during each item’s closing time.

6. Bidding for Charity (vs. Bidding for Bargains)

How many of your donors are actually bidding above FMV (Fair Market Value, AKA the real value of your item)?

This shows your donors’ motivations. Donors who bid above FMV are more driven by donating to your cause (and can afford your items). Donors who bid below FMV may simply be hunting for a good deal on items. 

One study showed that charity-driven bidders consistently drive bids higher. Focus on attracting more of those high-quality bidders, or emphasize your charitable cause more prominently to attract charitable bidding.

Common Bidding Behaviors to AVOID

While you'll want to replicate your past successes, you'll want to avoid past mistakes. Look for these behaviors that will predict future failures:

1. Hesitating with High Starting Bids 

Did you notice a lack of bids on seemingly desirable items? 

One culprit could be your starting bids. High starting bids can intimidate your donors, preventing any momentum from building on that item. Experiment with lower starting bids (but don’t go any lower than the lowest price you’d accept for that item).

2. Hitting Price Ceilings

Do you notice bidders consistently dropping out once they reach a certain price point? 

This can be a very telling sign of what your donors’ budgets are. If most of your donors step out after $600, but most of your items are really worth $1,000+, try finding more items within the $600 price range. 

3. Abandoning Wins

Bidders who've abandoned wins before are likely to do so again. 

If abandoned wins are an issue, create a plan for bidders who don’t pay—whether that’s a statement in your terms and conditions stating winners are obliged to pay, or setting a time limit before the item is given to the second place winner.

What Past Bidding Behavior Does NOT Predict

In most cases, past bidding behavior is repeated. But pay attention to a couple of instances where that’s NOT the case:

1. Not Winning Any Items

A donor not winning any items is not a predictor for future attendance. Research shows that donors are still likely to show up to future charity auctions even if they didn’t win anything in previous years.

So don’t stress about making sure everyone gets to take something home. Stay focused on procuring high quality items and allow for a direct donation option for non-winners.

2. Overwhelm from Too Many Choices

You may notice that you raised more money with more items at your auction. But adding even more items doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll keep raising more money. 

At a certain point, you can have too many items and overwhelm your donors. This is often called choice overload, and psychologically it leads to being unable to make decisions because of a surplus of options. 

Experiment to find the perfect balance and the number of items that are right for your auction.

Tracking Bidding History Year-Over-Year

You can gain valuable insights by tracking bidding history over multiple years. But going back and forth between data from multiple auctions can be a headache.

Use CharityAuctions.com’s Auction History feature to compare your data from all of your previous events. Our comprehensive report helps you save time while analyzing your bidding history.

Create an account for free to explore our complete reporting suite.

Or read our complete Charity Auction Analytics & Reporting Guide for more about auction data.

Tom Kelly

Tom Kelly, TEDx speaker and CEO of CharityAuctions.com, helps nonprofits raise millions through auctions and AI. He hosts The Million Dollar Nonprofit podcast and inspires leaders to live their legacy, not just leave it.